Forecasters say normal winter weather expected

A much-needed taste of Indian summer on the shores of Lake Huron — and a chance to turn the thermostat down again — was enjoyed by most everybody the last few days, but warm conditions are not expected to continue. A low pressure system is expected to roll into the Great Lakes region over the weekend, bringing rain and sending temperatures back down, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Corey Chaskelson. Already October has been far different than September, with temperatures, until this recent warming trend, far below the normal daytime highs of the low 60s.

THE AVERAGE LOW for October is supposed to be in the low 40s to upper 30s, and as most of us know, those were more like the highs on some days. The average temperatures for September, based on data for the last 30 years, is 68.3 degrees, while lows are 45.6. Unofficial figures from Rogers City?s cooperative weather observer Wallace Roeske indicate temperatures were normal to slightly above average. Highs for September were 72.6 degrees, while lows were 48.7.

The September data is considered official until the National Climatic Data Center certifies it. Chaskelson, from the NWS office in Gaylord, said high pressure over the region warmed things up this week and fortunately the system was a slow mover. ?We should see warmer drier weather at least through Friday,? he said Monday.

WHILE NORMAL readings would be much more tolerable through the rest of the month, forecasters at the NCDC on the east coast are predicting a normal winter. ?Everything they have been looking at seems to point to a normal winter,? said Chaskelson. ?Nothing out of the ordinary? is expected, he said. ?What that would mean for us, if that were to be the case, is the typical amount of snowfall that we see each winter,? said Chaskelson…?at least at the Gaylord office, we were at normal (last season). Normal for us is about 150 inches

That would be twice as much as was recorded between November 1, 2002 through March 31, 2003, when 69.75 inches of snow was recorded at the Presque Isle County Road Commission office in Rogers City.

THAT DOES not include one of the largest late winter storm events in recent history, when nearly 30 inches of snow fell in early April. The state does not include snowfall precipitation after April 1, so an asterisk almost needs to be placed by last season?s total. The figures are closer to average for Rogers City when the spring storm is factored in. The average snowfall for the last 15 years was 101 inches.

Looking ahead to November, last year only two inches of snow was recorded, but the month has had its share of storms. There was 20 inches of the white stuff in 1989 and 14.5 inches in 1996.